Get ready to mark your calendars, because 2026 is shaping up to be a monumental year at the box office! Four blockbuster films are poised to shatter the $1 billion barrier, but which ones will truly dominate? Last year, four movies achieved this feat, with Ne Zha 2 relying heavily on international audiences, while Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash conquered both domestic and global markets. While a fifth contender could always emerge—think The Odyssey, Christopher Nolan’s next potential masterpiece—we’re focusing on the four films with the strongest odds. But here’s where it gets controversial: not all of these are guaranteed hits, and one might just surprise you with its potential downfall. Let’s dive in and rank them by likelihood, starting with the least certain.
4) *The Mandalorian & Grogu*
Disney is betting big on this theatrical Star Wars adventure, but it’s been eight years since the disappointing Solo: A Star Wars Story. While The Mandalorian has a loyal fanbase, its popularity peaked in seasons one and two (2019-2020). After a three-year hiatus, the final season didn’t quite live up to the hype. Will The Mandalorian & Grogu reverse this trend? The trailer certainly sparks excitement, but it lacks the epic event feel of earlier installments. Is this a safe bet or a risky gamble? We’ll have to wait and see. Chance of crossing $1 billion: 60%.
3) *Toy Story 5*
The Toy Story franchise has been a box office juggernaut, but its trajectory isn’t as straightforward as it seems. Adjusted for inflation, the first film would gross around $767 million, Toy Story 2 hits $961 million, and Toy Story 3 peaks at $1.576 billion. However, Toy Story 4 dipped to $1.352 billion, leaving fans wondering if the series had run its course. Does the world really need a fifth installment? While it’s unlikely to fall below $1 billion, don’t expect Zootopia 2-level success. Chance of crossing $1 billion: 75%.
2) *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*
The MCU isn’t the financial powerhouse it once was, but Tom Holland’s Spider-Man remains a fan favorite. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is a smaller-scale reset after the monumental No Way Home, but it’s still expected to perform well. Will it match No Way Home’s $1.921 billion, or will it land closer to Far From Home’s $1.133 billion? Either way, the odds are in its favor. Chance of crossing $1 billion: 85%.
1) *Avengers: Doomsday*
Despite the MCU’s recent financial uncertainties, Avengers: Doomsday is the safest bet of 2026. With Robert Downey Jr. returning in a new role, this film is practically guaranteed to cross $1 billion. But here’s the twist: with a rumored budget over $600 million, will it be a true success? All eyes are on this winter blockbuster, not just for its box office potential but for what it means for the future of the MCU. Chance of crossing $1 billion: 100%.
And this is the part most people miss: While these four films are strong contenders, the real question is whether they’ll redefine the box office or simply meet expectations. What do you think? Are these predictions spot-on, or is there a dark horse waiting to surprise us? Let’s debate in the comments!
